Unlike China which has an economic dependence on the West,
Russia sells its extraction elements, oil and minerals. You really can't buy
any "Made in Russia" stuff at Walmart. So why doe Russia do what it
does? Simply it is the Russian mindset of having a presence, a seat at the
table. It is doubtful that Russia wants to overthrow the United States. Frankly
they have enough problems at home without taking on more. International
influence, yes, international "respect", yes, recognition, yes.
Now as to Russian Intelligence Operatives. What do they
seek? Sources of information, strategic advantages, weaknesses of the other
side. If a target can be compromised then a target can be manipulated. Yet to
compromise one must know something the target wants kept secret and then let
the target know that they are vulnerable. Classic extortion. To work, the
Operative must be invisible, yet present to the Target.
What are the rules for an Intelligence Operative?
There are three simple rules:
1. Never put it in writing
What does this mean? Simply never leave a discoverable
trail. Clearly when one enters Trump Tower or any other major building in New
York one is captured on video hundreds of times and one must register to enter
the building, one is photographed, one must submit valid IDs etc, pass through
Secret Service filters. Thus, any meeting at Trump Tower is a major violation
of Rule 1! Let us assume that the Trump folks were just naive. They took a
meeting which may after the fact have poor optics. Let us assume they were
smart. They took a meeting knowing that any operative would never appear in
such an open venue. Operatives meet in obscure locations like forests, mountain
paths, under bridges, or anywhere where they chance of being seen is as near
zero as possible. Operatives do not meet at a location under Secret Service
control, like Trump Tower. Unless the Secret Service has also been compromised
in toto! That is a tale going too far.
2. Trust no one
As an Operative you must trust no one, not even your father
(or mother as the case may be). Anyone can be anything at any day. Trust is a
non-entity. Counter Intelligence relies of building trust with a target. If the
target is themselves an Operative then the target knows enough not to trust
anyone. In fact any attempt to build trust may be a sign of a Counter Intel
Operative. I have seen Counter Intel Stasi and Cuban Operatives, very
attractive but they scream beware!
3. Always have a second exit.
This is a critical one. It covers a lot of ground. From that
of a simple Plan B to the use of third parties to do messy jobs and seeing that
they are expendable. Never hold the knife, you may get caught. Have plausible
deniability, be transparent. Have another identifiable as the Operative, always
have a delaying plan while escape can be made.
Is Russia a Major Threat?
In the old days we worried about a Soviet nuclear attack,
really! There were plans for various options such as the RISOP plan[1]. We still live on a
remnant of RISOP. Russia has ready nuclear forces, and the US maintains its
triad forces. The past Administration let the weapons remain un-updated, but
there are still more nuclear weapons to destroy the earth many times over.
Russia likewise has active capabilities. But both Russian and American key
players understand the end game of any nuclear engagement and would thus
mitigate against any. China is a bit uncertain but its focus has been on
economic warfare. Thus Russia may at the extreme be a threat but not in any day
to day environment. One may then ask why they are acting as they do? The answer
is simple. It is the tale of the frog and the scorpion. The scorpion walks to
the edge of a raging river and seeks to cross. He asks a frog who at first
refuses, after all it is a scorpion. The scorpion promises not to sting. The
frog agrees and halfway across the raging river the scorpion stings the frog,
now both will die. The frog asks in his last breath; why? The scorpion replies:
I can't help it, I am a scorpion. Thus one understands the Russian mind.
Is Russia more of a threat than China?
Now here we have a concern. This is an economic player. A
large military but one suspects to keep peace at home. But a massive player in
world economies and growing. Perhaps more time on this issue would be better
spent than on the scorpion!
Posts
