Thursday, October 3, 2013

Nuclear Weapons: Then and Now




The recent book, Command and Control, addresses an interesting and still vitally important topic. Namely, it examines nuclear weapons control and safety. We all too often fail to remember that the prime job of the Secretary of Energy is no electric cars but management and oversight of the nuclear weapons development and distribution. This book presents a diorama of many of the events surrounding the deployment and control of such weapons.

However, as many other reviewers had noted, the style of the book can be very frustrating at times. The author uses the Damascus incident as an ongoing connector to other historical tale recounting the development of nuclear weapons control and the mistakes that have occurred over the decades. After a while this approach becomes not only distracting but an annoyance. For example the author will take the Damascus Incident, an incident when the maintenance of a liquid fuel Titan II was damaged by a Tech apparently not following protocol, and then ultimately exploding, as a metaphor for each of the Chapters which are interspersed. Thus one is supposed to be drawn to see mistakes in the small and mistakes in the large. Nice idea but it just does not seem to work.

Now, I will discuss the text in toto. If one can work around the style, the book tells a compelling tale. It begins at the beginning, Los Alamos, and then proceeds to detail the many developments in the evolution of nuclear weapons. There are excellent discussions of the political in-fighting and the pros and cons of military control over the weapons. LeMay plays a key role during this early period as well he should. LeMay was a pivotal player whose world view of war was massive total destruction. LeMay viewed war as a total destruction of the enemy, as he had done in Europe and in the Pacific. Lemay in a sense was the driving force for military use and deployment.

The author does an excellent job in developing the issue of who control nuclear weapons, by going over the various ways in which the weapons flowed into military hands. The design and building of the weapons was done under AEC and then DoE aegis with the support of such places as Sandia Labs in Albuquerque. Sandia was managed by AT&T under a Government contract and was a massive facility adjacent to Kirkland AFB which itself was adjacent to the airport at Albuquerque. Sandia developed various weapons and weapon security systems. Tests of the weapons were often done by DoE or its predecessor the AEC. The author integrates these efforts into the text. It would have been interesting to have developed the significant interplay between DoE and DOD as weapons systems evolved.

The author interweaves many other near miss events into the text in a chronological basis between the evolving tale of the Damascus event. Such near misses as the explosion of a B-52 over North Carolina and the loss of 2 H bombs over Span and but a few.

The author does a reasonable job in describing the safety procedures employed but it would possibly have been more enlightening to have some first-hand descriptions. Many “fail-safe” procedures had been developed but as the author states each time an improvement to a fail-safe was done it potentially impeded the effectiveness of the weapon.

There are several areas, in my opinion, which the author has missed or touched lightly upon and should have been included or expanded upon:

1. Soviet Nuclear Weapons: On almost a one to one basis the Soviets matched the US for weapons of vast killing power. The Soviets often played games of chicken with US SAC forces and this would frequently be at the risk of deployment of weapons, especially tactical weapons. In addition the use of the nuclear submarine fleet and the games played there also presented dramatic threats. It would have been useful to have had this interplay discussed somewhat. The classic Triad of aircraft, submarines and missiles would also have been useful to draw together. Understanding Soviet capability and control would have made an excellent counterpoint.

2. Tactical Weapons and Special Weapons Depots: Tactical weapons were always considered just a step above a large non-nuclear weapon, and early on not w real nuclear weapon. The author does discuss the Davy Crockett weapons but in reality there were hundreds of Special Weapons Depots, SWD, across the globe which contained these types of weapons. The SWDs were reasonably well guarded but their very number often gave one concern not just because of what they contained but often because one could not reasonably expect to get the best personnel at this many locations. They also were DOD controlled and thus were subject to the change of staff which raised the risk of failure to follow protocols. Thus the proliferation of Tactical weapons, 1KT ranges, were in reality a serious byproduct of the enthusiasm early on for nuclear solutions.

3. Other National Weapons Controls: The British, French, Chinese, Israelis, Pakistanis, Indians, and South Africans as well as North Korea and Iran all have dabbled in nuclear weapons and many have collections in their arsenals.

4. Nuclear Weapons Treaties: There were many discussions between the US, UK and Soviets from time to time. They typically dealt with testing and proliferation. I spent the latest 70s as an advisor to ACDA and the CTBT during the Carter Administration and dealt with the Soviets firsthand. Neither side trusted the other, yet side conversations between the parties were about children and grandchildren. Thus, although both sides were prepared for ultimate destruction, both sides also had a view of the humanity of the others. The author discusses Professor Pipe’s works at that time, and I knew Pipes well, and as a refugee from Poland Pipes knew firsthand the Soviets. Thus somehow there had to be a convergence of interests. MAD and Reagan’s efforts, in my opinion, on pushing what “could happen” did eventually get the sides to stand down, somewhat. The author discusses this issue but it could have been more fully developed.

5. Strategists: The influence of Herman Kahn and thinks like him also has an overpowering role to play. Kahn is recognized as the promoter of the MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction strategy. Namely if both sides are rational and both sides have so much excess nuclear capabilities then no side would rationally start a first strike. Kahn started out at Rand and ended at the Manhattan Institute but it would have been useful to integrate these efforts a bit more including the many such efforts at Rand.

6. Technological Elements: The WWMCCS discussion was lightly approached and in a sense it could have been a section unto itself. The whole concept of command, control, communications and intelligence came out in this period. However these were massively complex systems with detailed methods and procedures and whose very structure could very well have overburdened any rational response capability. The author’s example of the Burroughs computers is but one simple example of grand technological ideas and ideals supported by antiquated technical implementations.

Overall the book contains some relevant materials that explain a world in the past. The current environment, however, with proliferation of such weapons, dramatically changes the landscape. For example, would the US try a MAD strategy on a rouge state nuclear capable nation the effect may be de minimis. Thus how would one address such factors? Here the past may only be partly prologue to the future. Thus the book is well worth the read even if at times it can be a bit off-putting in style.