Thursday, August 4, 2011

Over the Edge Again?


In December 2008 we created our Baseline Portfolio. Basically it was a set of Blue Chip stocks in unrelated sectors with dividend yields each above 5.5% at the time. Above s the result of performance to date. Our annualized gain is still above 20% from that date but dropping fast as of today.
You can see some of the details above. Still there but dropping.
The above is the daily drop. Today we saw a 4% drop from two days ago. It is the largest drop since the March 2009 period. We believe we may be seeing another 2009 period as we indicated before.

Now the yield curve is flattened and dropped again. It is back to where we were a year ago. Surprising given the debt fiasco.

The spread in 30 year to 30 day is dropping again and it can be seen to be approaching what we saw a year ago as well.

The 3 month Treasury is approaching record lows but the spread is still higher than a year ago.

The above shows this a bit more clearer.

All in all there is a great deal of conflicting data. On Friday we should get the employment news. We await it.