Monday, January 17, 2011

Just How Open is China?

The People's Daily today has an interesting overview of the Chinese dependence on the US. It states:

Since the beginning of the new year, American companies one after the other have proposed their new policies of investing in China. General Electric Company (GE) will invest more than $2 billion to sharpen its research and development in China with several new innovation centers and joint ventures; P&G has announced that they will in five years add another $1 billion in China; Ford Motor Company said they would further expand their production this year; Caterpillar Inc will build new joint ventures to boost their spare parts business in China; Starbucks has confirmed that their coffee shops in China will reach as many as 1,500 by 2015; The Carlyle Group will raise money specially to be used in China.

Intel China is no exception. According to Ge Jun, Executive Director of Intel China, the Chinese government is pushing the integration of the “three nets” (namely, telecom, computer and cable TV networks) and the development of Internet of Things (IoT). This undoubtedly will provide new opportunities to the US IT industry. Since Intel's settlement in China in 1985, China has become its second largest market outside of its homeland.

According to statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2010, the US had invested in more than 59,000 projects in China with a total of $ 65.22 billion. China is becoming a “money spinner” to US companies. A survey by the Chinese American Chamber of Commerce said that 71% of the US-funded ventures made profits in 2009 and 46% of them gained a higher profit ratio in China than they did in any other country.

Since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) 10 years ago, all the 100 service institutes China pledged to open have accepted US investment. In areas such as accounting, banking, insurance, security and commerce, US companies are making big money and are running very well.

Currently, China is the second largest trade partner and the top growing export market of the US. According to Chinese Customs, the volume of Sino-US trade in 2010 was $385.34 billion with a nearly 30% annual increase. In 2010, China's import volume from the US was $102.04 billion with an increase of 31.7% year–on-year.

 This clearly a sweetening of the rhetoric before the visit next week. The $100 billion import number is projected for 2010, update awaiting. The exports are still almost 4 times the imports. 


The trade issues are inconsequential compared to the PLA issues.


Yet in contrast there is also a discussion regarding the yuan. They state:

The year 2010 was bumpy for Sino-US relations. On the political front, the United States has been irritated by what it sees as an "overly confident" China. On the economic side, China's revaluation of the yuan cannot satisfy some Americans' appetite for a buoyant rise of the yuan in the range of 20 to 40 percent.

Against this background, some Americans, especially people on Capitol Hill, see President Hu Jintao's state visit to the US this week as an opportunity to increase pressure on China to make bolder progress on the yuan issue. On the Chinese side, however, no giant steps will be taken; the yuan is already on the revaluation track.

To a large extent, the Chinese leadership's cautious attitude toward the yuan is understandable. Many people in the US, including a number of China experts, have failed to realize that like its American counterpart, the Chinese leadership, too, puts employment at the top of its agenda. In the US, the motive is votes. In China, it is social stability.

The revaluation of the yuan, however, may not have a great effect on employment in China. Researchers at the China Center for Economic Research and the National School of Development in Peking University did a simulation study on the effects of the yuan's revaluation on the Chinese as well as the US economies.

 Again a deflection from the real issue namely the expansion of the PLA.