Friday, August 20, 2010

Yield Curve: August 2010



















The above is the yield curve over the past few months. The most recent values are lowered to a level which we have not seen in ages. The 30 year yield is approaching 3.5%.

The details below show how we have seen the yield drop over a longer period.



















Clearly the short term is low but what is interesting is that the 30 year yield seems to be reaching an all time low. The question of course is who is buying the Treasuries, the FED as well as what other entities. We will be doing a more detailed analysis on this issue as well.

This is the spread for the 30 year to 30 day Treasuries and it clearly points out the recent trend.



















Note especially the recent drop of the spread. We look below at the 90 day and 10 year spread, the more standard measure and it also has reached an all time low. There appears to be some slight recovery over the past few days but that may just be a statistical anomaly.



















The following is an interesting graph because the spread has gone below our lowest expected point!