Saturday, July 31, 2010

"Crowding Out"

The CBO report on the Long Term Budget Outlook has an interesting curve of the GDP projections with a "crowding out" effect.













The CBO states:

“Crowding out” refers to the fact that government borrowing (to finance deficits) tends to crowd out private investment in productive capital, leading to a smaller capital stock and lower output in the long run than would otherwise occur. The stable economic conditions that CBO used in making its long-term budget projections under both scenarios included assumptions—after 2020—of a constant real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate on federal debt and steady growth rates for real wages and output....Increased government borrowing tends to crowd out private investment in productive capital, leading to a smaller capital stock and lower output in the long run than would otherwise be the case. Deficits tend to have that effect on private investment because the portion of people’s savings used to buy government bonds is not available to pay for such investment.

This is exactly what is happening to the economy. Money is leaving by tax confiscation the investment stream of entrepreneurial activities and being redistributed for election purposes.