As a reminder the data are from:
| Peak | Trough |
| November 1948 | October 1949 |
| July 1953 | May 1954 |
| August 1957 | April 1958 |
| April 1960 | February 1961 |
| December 1969 | November 1970 |
| November 1973 | March 1975 |
| January 1980 | July 1980 |
| July 1981 | November 1982 |
| July 1990 | March 1991 |
| March 2001 | November 2001 |
| December 2007 | July 2009 (estimate*) |
These dates have changed somewhat from our prior posting.
1. GDP
The GDP growth is lagging from past recessions but is above the min. On the other hand the interest rates and the inflation rates have been kept low so there is little upward pressure.
2. Income
Income growth is dismal. It lags below the minimum and is a major driver for the slow GDP growth. This is driven by the push on extra productivity.
3. Employment
As with income the employment stats are remaining at record lows. The economy is not taking the risk of expanding most likely a result of the ongoing uncertainty from Washington. It will be interesting to see years from now how the economic team in DC will be judged.
4. Retail Sales
What is surprising is the recovery or retail sales. Thus despite lower income and higher unemployment, people now seem to be buying again. The recent growth is of interest.
5.Industrial Production
Production seems to be rebounding at a reasonable rate to meet the demand. One of course should worry about the drop seen in the min curves.
5. Personal Consumption
This is a slow recovery as we have commented on above.
6. Private Investment
Private Investment is increasing on an average basis. This is a significant driver of growth but caution resides here as well due to DC.
7. Exports and Imports
Exports are gaining over imports due to the slow demand in the US and the growing demand outside, other than the EU.
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