Monday, April 19, 2010

Housing and the Recession

The Census has just released the most recent stats on housing and they appear to demonstrate a continual growth in the positive direction.



















The above is a summary of new housing; starts by class from start through completion. Note that starts are growing and completions is declining. That is a good sign since the decline is a lagging indicator and the starts are a leading indicator. The growth in starts is continuing at a good rate from the low of last year but is still lagging from a few years ago, which frankly is not at all surprising.

As for the regional characteristics we show the single family starts by region below.



















The regional differences are clear in the above. The south has a dramatic growth in starts while the northeast is lagging. This is quite common. What is quite positive is the growth in western starts.

Thus we believe that the leading indicator of starts demonstrates a slow but progressing recovery.