Saturday, October 17, 2009

Treasury Results on 2009 Budget to Actual

The Treasury released the Budget and Actual for the Government Fiscal 2009. We review them below. The report summarizes the status as follows:

"A summary of the FY2009 data, released as part of the September 2009 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government, shows that the federal deficit dropped by $162 billion from a projected $1,580 billion in the August Mid-Session Review (MSR) to the final figure of $1,417 billion.

Receipts for the fiscal year totaled $2,105 billion, while outlays totaled $3,522 billion.

The decline in the deficit from the August MSR estimate reflected outlays that were $132 billion lower than expected in August, in large measure because of lower-than-anticipated outlays by the government's Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). The decline was also the result of receipts that were $31 billion higher than estimated in the MSR.

The FY2009 deficit was largely the product of the spending and tax policies inherited from the previous Administration, exacerbated by a severe recession and financial crisis that were underway as the current Administration took office. The new Administration's chief economic stabilization and recovery efforts implemented through TARP and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act) accounted for 24 percent of the deficit total.

Federal borrowing from the public net of financial assets increased by $1,417 billion during FY2009, to $6,711 billion or 47.2 percent of GDP."



First is the Receipts in total over the 2008, 2009 and Budget to Actual




















Second is the details on receipts.




















Third is the outlays by total and deficit by total.



















The Treasury report concludes:

"Primarily because of the government's economic recovery efforts, outlays for FY2009 grew by $543 billion, or 18.2 percent, from FY2008. The full implementation of these temporary measures -- notably TARP initiatives to aid financial institutions and stabilize credit markets, the Treasury's Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which helped to stabilize credit availability in the mortgage market, and the Recovery Act -- contributed to growth in outlays. Increased outlays through automatic stabilizers such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program also contributed to the change. As a percentage of GDP, outlays grew from 20.6 percent in FY2008 to 24.8 percent in FY2009.

The final $1,417 billion FY2009 deficit figure was $424 billion lower than projected in the FY2010 Budget, released in May, with receipts coming in $52 billion lower and outlays $476 billion lower than projected. Relative to the FY2008 data, the FY2009 deficit ended $962 billion higher. The FY2009 deficit amounts to an estimated 10.0 percent of GDP. "

There is no plan for stemming this cash rupture and this portends just more problems for the next three years of the current administration.