Friday, September 4, 2009

Variation in The Romer Employment Data

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The DoL has issued data for August. The data shows August unemployment at 9.7%, an increase from what it was in July. The data shown above is from the Romer Stimulus Plan model of January of this year and the actual data.

The following is the percent error of the Romer plan, and as we have continually said, even from the day of release of this Plan, it will never be achieved. It is the classic academic macroeconomist's plaything that will never reflect reality.



















The following is the variation in actual percentage point on a month by month basis of the Romer Errors. They have continued to grow on a month by month basis especially the variation in actual unemployment with the Stimulus Plan. Congress should just cancel the Stimulus and declare victory. For those of us who went through the Vietnam period, especially for those of us who were close to some decision makers, as I was as a young man, it is reminiscent of the same closed mindset. Vietnam was just a war but it managed to destroy the economy until 1982 with the new Republican Administration. It appears that this will be many times worse with Wars, Health Care and whatever else they want to throw into the burden of the future generations.



















The strange thing is that the current Administration wonders why the response towards health care is so vitriolic. The answer is that people now have information, they have HR 3200, and they read it and discuss it. The very tool, the Internet and its open data access, which helped in an election can equally prove to be the very same tool to prevent mass collapse of the economy. Tracking the Romer Errors is just one clear reminder of the arrogance of the intellectual, the academic really needs to try their hand at creating wealth by creating a business and putting people to work. You see things differently then.