Monday, June 8, 2009

Treasury 3 Month and 10 Year Spreads

The following depicts the spread in Treasuries for the 3 month and 10 year securities. We fist plot the spread in basis points and then as a percent of the 10 year.

The one below is the spread in basis points. Note that the spread is increasing at a rapid rate in the past few weeks. This is a reasonable estimator of pending inflationary pressure on the tail. There have been spikes before but we see what appears to be a growing trend. Thus may portend the growth in the long term rates despite the attempts by the FED to keep the short term rates down. The yield curve has a significant upward slope at this time and we anticipate it increasing.


















The following is spread in percent. This normalization may have some use in future analysis.